Key points

• Global energy demand is still rising, largely because of population and economic growth in low- and middle-income countries, and clean energy does not yet cover all of that growth. Much of the fossil fuel infrastructure built to meet that demand will stay in operation for decades.

• Fossil fuel infrastructure built now, such as a new coal plant, can keep emitting until 2070 or beyond. Which infrastructure we build over the next decade will largely determine how much we emit by the end of the century.

• Most future emissions will come from China and the rest of the world outside Europe and the United States, so avoiding a carbon lock-in needs effective and equitable ways to accelerate the energy transition in emerging economies, without harming energy access.

• Promising levers include solving the intermittency of solar and wind, clean heavy industry, transparent energy contracts, re-powering coal plants, ending fossil fuel subsidies, and more applied research.

• You can help by working in the energy sector, government, transition and development finance, or engineering, or by donating to organisations working on clean energy in emerging economies.

About this issue

Solar and wind are being rolled out at remarkable speed, but total global energy demand is still rising too. In 2025, low-emissions sources such as solar, wind, hydropower and nuclear met nearly 60% of the growth in global energy demand. Fossil fuels supplied the rest, so global energy-related CO₂ emissions rose by around 0.4% to a record of nearly 38.4 billion tonnes. The power sector is the bright spot: clean electricity grew faster than electricity demand in 2025, and fossil power generation fell slightly for the first time since 2020.

In principle, the global growth in energy use is great news. In many countries where energy consumption is going up, this is driven by population growth or by economic growth. It is a sign that people are living longer and are getting out of poverty. Unsurprisingly, an increasing share of global CO₂ emissions comes from middle-income countries.

Preventing a carbon lock-in from newly built fossil fuel infrastructure in a just, equitable, and effective way is a climate priority for many people in the effective environmentalism community. It affects a large amount of future projected emissions. It also presents an opportunity to increase energy access and reduce air pollution.

Why do countries still build fossil fuel infrastructure?

Even though the costs of renewables have fallen below the costs of fossil fuels, in many ways fossil fuels are still an attractive energy source. While renewables are expected to supply most future energy needs, countries might still build fossil fuel infrastructure for the following reasons:

• To provide firm power to balance the intermittency of solar and wind. When there is no sunshine or wind (a 'Dunkelflaute'), gas power plants (and over longer periods, also coal) are an attractive energy option because they do not depend on the weather. Gas is also an attractive option to balance the short-term variability of solar and wind, as it can easily be ramped up or down. Clean firm power sources (geothermal, nuclear, and hydropower) are not always good solutions when the local geography is not suitable, or simply because the costs are too high. Batteries have become much cheaper, which makes them affordable for moving solar power from the day into the evening and night. However, storing enough electricity to bridge several days of poor weather is not yet cost-effective, so longer dark, windless periods still call for clean firm power or other long-duration options.

• To meet the heat requirements of industry. Solar, wind, and other renewables do not produce enough heat to power industries like cement and steel. Alternatives like green hydrogen or biofuels are often either expensive or have other downsides, such as air pollution and ecosystem damage.

• Because they already use gas in other sectors. Gas infrastructure may already exist for the production of (petro)chemicals or fertilisers.

• Because debt structures in low- and middle-income countries incentivise fossil fuel extraction and reliance. There are multiple ways debt leads to carbon lock-in, but one important one is that debt reduces the fiscal space for investing in renewables.

Why this issue?

What we build now matters a lot

To keep up with growing populations and economies, the world will invest tens of trillions of dollars in energy and transportation infrastructure through 2040. In 2026, energy investments alone are around $3.4 trillion USD, of which about $1.2 trillion USD is going into oil, gas and coal. Many of these infrastructure investments will stay in operation for several decades. For example, a coal-fired power plant that is built now is expected to stay in operation (and therefore keep emitting CO₂) until well after 2070. Which infrastructure we build over the next decade will largely determine how much we'll emit in total by the end of the century.

If humanity instead builds its future energy infrastructure with solar panels, wind turbines, and nuclear power plants, we can avoid a 'carbon lock-in' in which gas and coal power plants continue emitting an unsustainable amount of greenhouse gases. As you can see in the figure from the World Resources Institute below, coal and gas-powered energy infrastructure is typically used for decades and causes much higher greenhouse gas emissions than renewables or nuclear.

Most future emissions will come from emerging economies

Most greenhouse gas emissions between now and the end of this century will not come from Europe and the United States. Europe and the United States are responsible for more than half of historical carbon emissions, while only making up a very small part of the global population. But when we look at future projected emissions by 2100, only 19% will come from these two regions. This number is even lower when you consider that Europe already has climate policy to reduce its emissions. Instead, China and the 'rest of the world' dominate future greenhouse gas emissions because of the construction of new infrastructure.

Importantly, many developing countries and emerging economies will still emit much less by the end of the century than Europe and the United States. But we cannot cope with climate change if all countries with 'negligible' emissions do not build clean energy and transport infrastructure. We need to find effective and equitable ways to accelerate the energy transition in low- and middle-income countries without affecting these countries' energy access, financial burden, or autonomy.

While the risk of a carbon lock-in is highest in emerging economies, high-income countries are also building new fossil fuel infrastructure. Most future emissions from planned new infrastructure are from China and India. This isn't surprising, because both countries have over a billion inhabitants and are growing their economies rapidly. The rest of the list consists mostly of upper-middle-income countries, but also some high-income countries. Notably, the United States, Japan, England and Wales, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Russia are still planning major new fossil fuel power plants.

Carbon lock-in is neglected

Clean energy investment is not flowing to where most new infrastructure will be built. Emerging and developing economies outside China account for less than 15% of global clean energy investment, despite being home to 65% of the world's population and about a third of global GDP. To get on track for 1.5 °C, the IEA estimates that clean energy investment in these countries needs to rise more than sixfold, from $270 billion USD a year to $1.6 trillion USD by the early 2030s.

Climate finance in emerging economies is growing, but most of it goes to China. Climate finance across emerging markets and developing economies exceeded $1 trillion USD in 2023, according to the Climate Policy Initiative, but China accounted for $685 billion USD (64%) of that. That leaves roughly $380 billion USD for all other emerging and developing economies combined, against an estimated need of around $4 trillion USD a year by 2030 for emerging economies as a whole.

Climate philanthropy neglects funding work in emerging economies, too. Foundations gave a record $6 billion USD to climate mitigation in 2024, according to ClimateWorks Foundation. Yet of the foundation funding directed to a specific country or region, around 70% went to the United States ($1.7 billion USD) and Europe ($890 million USD), a share that grew compared with 2023. By comparison, known foundation funding to India was about $145 million USD and to Indonesia about $45 million USD. Funding for phasing out fossil fuels, including coal, was the only sector that shrank in 2024 (by 15%). ClimateWorks points to structural barriers that keep funders away from the Global South, such as limited capacity to vet unfamiliar organisations, few established grantees, and cross-border compliance costs.

This makes small amounts of money and talent unusually valuable. Philanthropy and nonprofit work cannot fill a multitrillion-dollar investment gap directly, but they can help change the conditions for investment: transparent energy contracts, power sector planning, and lower financing costs. Because few organisations work on these levers in emerging economies, additional people and funding are likely to go further here than in better-funded areas of climate work.

Types of carbon lock-in

The classic example of carbon lock-in is building new coal power plants. But the risk of carbon lock-in applies to virtually every major sector that produces or consumes energy:

• Power and electricity: The energy sector is a major emitter of greenhouse gas emissions, and fossil fuel-powered power plants stay in operation for 20 to 45 years. Luckily, there are clean energy sources like renewables, nuclear power, and upcoming clean firm power solutions that can make coal and gas obsolete.

• Industry: Plants for cement, steel, or petrochemicals have a lifetime of several decades (40, 35, and 30 years, respectively). While the world will still need cement, steel, and (some) chemicals, we can reduce the future impacts of these factories by designing them to be low-emissions when they are built. (And of course, the world will need fewer petrochemicals as the energy transition progresses.)

• Buildings: Most buildings stick around for about 80 years, and some are used much longer. If we create new buildings without sustainable construction materials (such as clean cement), good insulation, and clean heating and cooling, we commit ourselves to emissions for heating and cooling for multiple decades.

• Transportation: Planes and ships are built to last for well over 25 years. Developing solutions for clean aviation and shipping sooner will avoid a carbon lock-in, because the planes and ships we produce now for the growing demand will continue being used even after new solutions make their way to the market.

Our expected lifetimes of infrastructure are based on an article by the World Resources Institute.

How can we prevent or reverse a carbon lock-in?

There is no one-size-fits-all solution to avoiding a carbon lock-in. Often, avoiding a carbon lock-in will require local solutions. We also need more research to find better ways to avoid a carbon lock-in effectively and equitably.

Some ways to prevent a carbon lock-in are:

• Improving energy contracts in emerging economies. In some emerging economies, managing energy contracts is a secretive process. In many cases, the power producers have no incentive to switch to renewables because they can pass the increasing costs of coal onto the government ('cost-plus contracts'). This prevents competition and slows down the deployment of clean energy. Making energy contracts public and eliminating cost-plus contracts can increase the adoption of renewables and reduce energy prices.

• Developing solutions to re-power coal power plants with clean energy sources, such as nuclear. These solutions could be repeatable, quick to develop, and cheaper than building new energy infrastructure.

• Solving the intermittency problem. If we make renewables, nuclear, or battery storage cheap and feasible solutions to the intermittency of solar and wind, this will make fossil fuels a less attractive energy source. This will also make it easier to shut down existing fossil fuel-based power plants.

• Finding solutions for a clean heavy industry. Heavy industry is a major reason for the continued expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure. If we find clean ways to power industries with high heat requirements, we do not need to build as many gas or coal plants.

• Eliminating fossil fuel subsidies. To level the playing field for clean energy and storage, governments should not subsidise fossil fuels using taxpayer money.

• Researching new and better solutions. In many ways, we still do not have a clear path to accelerate the energy transition in low- and middle-income countries. We need more research on technical solutions for clean power and better grids, and applied research on how to get solutions implemented.

Fairness and co-benefits

Work to avoid a carbon lock-in often touches upon energy access in the Global South and requires significant investments. That requires a careful consideration of the socio-economic aspects:

• Historical responsibility for climate change: While most future carbon emissions come from low- and middle-income countries, Europe and the United States are responsible for more than half of all historical emissions, and were able to get rich by burning fossil fuels. For climate justice, we should expect countries in the Global North to finance the energy transition.

• Energy access: Fossil fuel infrastructure often gets built because it is still the cheapest and easiest energy source. Organisations working on renewable energy in low- and middle-income countries need to make sure that their work does not come at the expense of improved energy access.

• Stranded assets: In addition to a carbon lock-in, investments in fossil fuels can also lead to stranded assets. An asset becomes stranded when it (unexpectedly) can no longer make a return because of economic or regulatory reasons. For example, coal and gas infrastructure will become obsolete when clean firm power and storage become mainstream. Preventing the construction of new fossil fuel infrastructure also reduces the risk of stranded assets.

• Air pollution: Burning fossil fuels is a major source of air pollution, which is the second-largest risk factor for death worldwide. Phasing out fossil fuels therefore also reduces air pollution.

Reasons to work on preventing a carbon lock-in

• You live in, or have strong ties to, an emerging economy. Most future emissions from new infrastructure will be built in low- and middle-income countries, and local knowledge, networks, and language skills are a major advantage in energy policy and contracting.

• You have a background in (energy) engineering, economics, development finance, or politics. These skills are helpful in designing energy systems as well as the policies and investment decisions that enable building out clean energy.

• You see energy access and air pollution as major priorities next to climate change mitigation. If these co-benefits are important to you, you should weigh this option more heavily than climate solutions without similar co-benefits.

Reasons not to work on preventing a carbon lock-in

• You're sceptical that this work is politically, economically, or physically feasible. For example, you think it is difficult for outside actors to influence energy decisions in sovereign countries, or that the barriers to building out clean energy are insurmountable.

• You think that working on the energy transition in emerging and developing economies increases energy costs or reduces energy access. If so, this work could reduce emissions while lowering living standards for the people least responsible for, and most affected by, climate change. In practice, some approaches to the energy transition probably improve energy access while others reduce it, so it's worth thinking about how your approach can deliver co-benefits.

• Your skills are a better match for other climate priorities than for preventing a carbon lock-in. Consider reading our list of climate priorities to see where your background can be best applied.

Types of work

How your expertise fits in

The best way in which you can contribute to preventing a carbon lock-in will depend on your own background and location. The ideas below might be helpful starting points:

• Energy sector and government in emerging economies: If you live in an emerging economy, you can work within the energy sector or the government to find solutions to avoid a carbon lock-in. This career path is especially relevant if you have a background in (energy) engineering, economics, or politics.

• Transition and development finance: If you live in a high-income country, you can consider a career in transition and development finance to fund the energy transition in emerging economies, and/or fund energy innovation in general.

• Engineering: Regardless of where you live, you can consider a career in engineering to find solutions to energy challenges.

• Grantmaking: As a grantmaker, you can identify, fund, and help incubate excellent nonprofits working on clean energy growth in emerging markets and developing economies.

Potential employers

If you're interested in working on preventing a carbon lock-in, you can do so in nonprofits, think tanks, development finance, international agencies, governments, and academia.

Nonprofits and think tanks

• Energy for Growth Hub studies energy for development in emerging markets, including tracking proposed coal plants in Africa and analysing power contracts that can lock countries into costly deals.

• Clean Air Task Force (CATF) works on decarbonising power systems and, through its Africa programme, models low-carbon development pathways and advises utilities in sub-Saharan Africa.

• Future Cleantech Architects (FCA) works on faster solutions for sustainable shipping and aviation to avoid a carbon lock-in in the transport sector.

• RMI runs country programmes in Africa, India and South-East Asia that help governments, utilities and investors meet fast-growing power demand with clean energy.

• Ember publishes open electricity data and policy analysis on coal and gas generation in countries such as India and Indonesia.

• Global Energy Monitor tracks proposed and operating coal plants, gas plants and gas infrastructure worldwide, and who finances them.

• TransitionZero builds open data and power-system modelling tools that analysts and governments use to plan clean electricity, with much of its work in Asia.

• Carbon Tracker is a financial think tank that analyses the stranded-asset risk of fossil fuel investment, including new coal power in India and Indonesia.

• Climate Policy Initiative tracks climate finance flows and designs financial instruments, with teams in India, Indonesia, Brazil and Africa working on energy transition finance.

• Sustainable Energy for All helps emerging and developing countries turn clean energy commitments into national plans and investment, including the energy compacts under Mission 300.

• TerraPraxis leads the REPOWER consortium, which develops standardised ways to convert existing coal plants to run on clean heat sources such as advanced nuclear.

Think tanks in emerging economies

• Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) is a Delhi think tank with research programmes on India's energy transition, power markets and energy security.

• Vasudha Foundation analyses India's power sector and builds climate and energy dashboards with NITI Aayog and state governments.

• Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) is a Bengaluru think tank that works with Indian governments on the green energy transition, including research on reliable, affordable clean power such as solar paired with battery storage.

• Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) is a Jakarta think tank working on Indonesia's power system transformation, and publishes the annual Indonesia Energy Transition Outlook.

• Clean Technology Hub is an Abuja-based hub doing research, policy support and incubation for clean energy in Nigeria.

Development finance institutions and development banks

• ESMAP (World Bank) provides analysis and technical assistance to developing-country energy sectors, including work on transitioning away from coal.

• International Finance Corporation (IFC) is the World Bank Group's private-sector arm and finances power generation, grids and renewables in emerging markets.

• Asian Development Bank: Energy Transition Mechanism uses blended finance to retire coal plants early in Asia, including Indonesia's Cirebon-1 plant.

• African Development Bank finances power generation, transmission and energy access across Africa, including through the Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa.

• Climate Investment Funds: Accelerating Coal Transition is a $2.2 billion USD programme that helps coal-dependent countries such as South Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines reconsider new coal plants and repurpose existing ones.

• British International Investment and FMO, the UK's and the Netherlands' development finance institutions, invest in renewable power and infrastructure in emerging markets.

International agencies

• The International Energy Agency runs the Clean Energy Transitions Programme, which gives data, modelling and policy advice to emerging economies such as India, Indonesia and South Africa.

• The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) supports national renewables-based transitions with data, policy and investment analysis.

Governments, regulators and utilities

• National energy ministries, power regulators, state utilities and system operators in emerging economies decide which plants are planned, procured and dispatched. Their planning and regulatory teams directly shape whether new coal and gas capacity gets built.

Universities and research programmes

• Climate Compatible Growth is a programme led by Loughborough University with Oxford, UCL, Imperial and others that provides open energy models and data to governments in countries including Kenya, Zambia, Ghana, India and Vietnam.

• The Energy Systems Research Group at the University of Cape Town models South Africa's energy and economic systems, including coal phase-out pathways.

• The Oxford Sustainable Finance Group developed the concept of stranded assets and researches how financial institutions price fossil fuel and transition risk.

You might also find important work that's not being picked up by any organisation. In that case, you might consider starting a new nonprofit or research programme.

Personalised career advice

Are you interested in working on preventing a carbon lock-in, but you're unsure where to start? Or are you weighing it against other climate change priorities? The following climate career advice services can give you tailored advice.

• The Effective Environmentalism Initiative provides free advice to professionals interested in maximising their positive climate impact. Read more about our personalised career advice.

• Probably Good provides free 1:1 career advice for people geared towards creating a meaningful impact.

Other ways to help

Donate to impactful nonprofits

We recommend donating to high-impact charities as one of the most important actions that you can take to make progress on climate action. Charity evaluators like Giving Green and Founders Pledge evaluate climate charities so that your donation makes the largest possible difference.

Some rigorously vetted climate charities working on preventing a carbon lock-in are:

• Clean Air Task Force (CATF) pushes for changes in technologies and policies needed to get to zero emissions, and recently expanded its work to Africa and Asia to work on carbon lock-in. CATF is recommended by both Founders Pledge and Giving Green.

• Future Cleantech Architects (FCA) works on faster solutions for sustainable shipping and aviation to avoid a carbon lock-in in the transport sector. It also addresses other innovation gaps to reach net zero. FCA is recommended by Giving Green.

• Energy for Growth Hub works on low-carbon technologies in emerging markets and promotes open and competitive clean energy markets and contracts. While the Energy for Growth Hub is not recommended as a top nonprofit by either Giving Green or Founders Pledge, both evaluators have previously granted to this organisation.

• Other nonprofits working on energy innovation, such as Project InnerSpace and Opportunity Green. While these organisations do not address carbon lock-in directly, they do work on innovation challenges required to eliminate fossil fuels and are evaluated and recommended by Giving Green. You can explore more climate nonprofits on our climate charities page.

Volunteer your time

You might be able to contribute your skills or time to nonprofits working on clean energy in emerging economies, especially if you have a skill that is in demand at nonprofits, such as operations or fundraising. To our knowledge, there is no existing guide for volunteering on preventing a carbon lock-in.

Key questions we're unsure about

• How systemic, wicked problems can be solved. Many of the reasons low-income countries are locked into fossil fuel dependence are politically difficult to address, such as debt traps and cost-plus contracts.¹ These are complicated problems that need clever solutions.

• How fast clean firm power and storage become affordable. Many of the levers on this page depend on the cost of storage and clean firm power in places with limited geothermal, nuclear, or hydropower potential.

• What outside actors can achieve. We're unsure how much nonprofits, funders, and governments in high-income countries can influence energy decisions in other countries without undermining their sovereignty.

Further resources

Introductory reading

• What to Know About Carbon Lock-in and How to Avoid It, by the World Resources Institute.

• How do we stop climate change?, by Effektiv Spenden. This article also covers the importance of carbon lock-in.

• Supporting a clean energy transition in low- and middle-income countries, by Giving Green.

Technical reading

• Mechanisms to Prevent Carbon Lock-in in Transition Finance, by the OECD.

• Tong et al. (2019). Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target.

Podcasts

• Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions (80,000 Hours, 2023). Founders Pledge's climate lead on why carbon lock-in in emerging economies matters, including funding for repowering coal plants.

• High Energy Planet is a podcast series by the Energy for Growth Hub on global energy abundance.

• Pakistan's solar boom (Volts, 2025), on how high grid prices and cheap panels drove a bottom-up solar boom, and what it means for other developing countries.

• Africa's energy transition (Columbia Energy Exchange, 2023), with Zainab Usman on meeting rising energy demand while building clean energy industries.

Courses

• Fossil Fuel Retirement (OpenLearn Create, free, 15 hours), on modelling the stranded costs of fossil fuel power plants and planning their early retirement in emerging economies.

• Financial Modelling for Energy Transitions (OpenLearn Create, free, 15 hours), on estimating energy transition investment needs and finance gaps in low- and middle-income countries.

• The Electricity Transition Playbook (OpenLearn Create, free, 10 hours), on planning a national power sector transition.

• Ecological and Energy Transitions in Southern Countries (Coursera, by the French Development Agency and École normale supérieure), on how the transition is governed and financed in the Global South.

Job boards

• Probably Good job board, a curated, continuously updated list of high-impact roles.

• Climatebase, the largest general climate job board.

• Rejobs energy access jobs

• Impactpool and Devex, for roles at the UN, development banks, development finance institutions and donor-funded energy programmes.

Communities

• The Effective Environmentalism Slack community, for swapping ideas, job opportunities and advice on high-impact climate work.

• Work on Climate, a global Slack community for people moving into climate work.

• The Energy Modelling Community, an open forum run by Climate Compatible Growth for analysts using open energy planning tools.

Fellowships and training programmes

• The RMI Global Women in Clean Energy Fellowship, a funded fellowship for women working in clean energy in Africa and Indonesia. Check the page for future editions.

• The Energy Modelling Platform and Bootcamps by Climate Compatible Growth, free competitive training for analysts and officials from low- and middle-income countries.

We're grateful to Enzia Schnyder for useful feedback on an earlier version of this article. Any mistakes remain ours.